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郭家耀: 新經濟股轉強港股料試25,500 市場觀望內房債風波去向
安里資產管理董事總經理郭家耀稱,美股上周五(8日)反覆低收,美國上月非農業新增職位表現遠遜預期,市場預料提前加息機會減低。能源價格持續向上,美國長債息率上升,利好相關股份表現,三大指數均錄得輕微跌幅收市。美元表現偏軟,美國十年期債息上升至1.61厘水平,油價表現強勢,金價反覆靠穩。港股預託證券普遍上升,預料大市早段跟隨高開。 內地股市國慶假期後復市,滬綜指高開低走,收市上升0.6%,滬深兩市成交額重返萬億元人民幣水平。 港股表現反覆,指數一度重上25,000點水平,其後出現獲利回吐,收市升幅有所收窄,大市成交較前增加。外圍走勢平穩,新經濟股表現轉強,有利大市回升,指數有望上試25,500點水平,下方支持上移至24,500點附近。 另克而瑞研究中心統計資料顯示,截至9月底,今年累計有39宗內房債券違約,較2020年增加25宗,涉及金額達467.5億元人民幣(下同),按年增長159%。克而瑞研究中心指出,年初至今華夏幸福(600340.SH)、藍光發展(600466.SH)、陽光100中國(02608.HK)、泰禾集團(000732.SZ)、花樣年(01777.HK)、新力控股(02103.HK)、中國恆大(03333.HK)等多家開發商出現流動性緊張問題,隨著資金鏈緊張情況加劇,房企債務清償能力下降,直接影響到債券市場表示,引發市場對地產債券的擔憂。 數據顯示,今年首三季100家典型房企的融資量為10,919億元,按年跌21%,其中第三季度的融資額為2,872億元,按年跌38%,按季亦下降24%。克而瑞預計第四季融資政策將維持現狀,降槓桿主基調不變的情況下,相信大部分內房企在投資上會更謹慎,融資量或將持續維持低位,預測第四季房企整體到期債券金額達1,082億元,分別按年及按季減少7%及19%。連番內房違約事件令近日債市波動,部份房企債息急升至幾十厘水平,市場觀望中央政策何時放鬆,令投資者憂慮紓緩。 (本人沒持有上述股份)~
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