週日思考：綠電點評+四季度可能的幾個方向！
作者 | 明野
數據支持 | 勾股大數據（www.gogudata.com）
大家好，我是明野！
這個週末討論的最火的貌似還是綠電，尤其是8號的時候，克強總理主持召開國務院常務會議，進一步部署做好今冬明春電力和煤炭等供應 保障羣眾基本生活和經濟平穩運行等。
本次國常會，市場重點關注討論的電價情況，之前市場對電價上漲幅度放寬到20%是有大概到預期的，至少是預計到漲幅會放寬，但是這次主要點在於進一步擴大了新能源發電不納入能耗指標的範圍，這個可以理解為對綠電、新能源產業鏈構成重大的利好，而且本次會議還首次提到了風光大基地。
具體來説，火電應發盡發，解決當前缺電問題，漲電價、推進煤炭增產。首提風光大基地，強調未來電力供給增量是新能源，且將新能源不納入能耗指標的範圍進一步擴大，確保了新能源產業鏈需求將持續大幅度增長。再次重申堅決遏制高耗能，糾正一刀切限電和運動式減排。
可以説，四季度，“綠電”資產溢價會日益體現，會是重要的投資方向。
1）綠電資產：
中廣核新能源、大唐新能源、正泰電器、晶科科技、金開新能源、江蘇新能、芯能科技等
2）風光新能源產業鏈：
風電：運達股份、金風科技、金雷股份、天順風能等
光伏：晶澳科技、隆基股份、天合光能、通威股份、陽光電源、福斯特等
3）大基地，特高壓
國電南瑞、許繼電氣、特變電工、平高電氣、思源電氣等
再討論下四季度可能的幾個方向：
從宏觀上，國內貨幣政策偏寬鬆的預期，可能會有降準或者降息。其次中美關係緩和，利於出口投資環境。綠電上面已經討論過，現在是各大機構都在推的板塊，而且如果經濟滯漲，公用事業因為業務穩定，會是不錯的防禦板塊，所以值得關注。另外幾個題材，比如冬奧會，雙十一，可能都有炒作的機會。
需要重點關注的是，低位的“茅族”，包括互聯網股等，這些公司的基本面可以説都沒有大問題，之所以回調這麼久，主要問題在估值，比如醬油，10%的增速配100倍估值，肯定是高了。另外的消費不景氣，原材料上漲，互聯網監管等等，只是估值下跌的理由，而且剛好年初的時候，估值都是歷史新高。現在看，這些公司的估值，基本在合理區間，也不見得很低，但如果能通過業績增長，股價走橫來繼續拉低估值，那可能機會就會比較大了。
格隆匯聲明：文中觀點均來自原作者，不代表格隆匯觀點及立場。特別提醒，投資決策需建立在獨立思考之上，本文內容僅供參考，不作為實際操作建議，交易風險自擔。
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