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標普:內地將面對更大能源壓力 料煤價明年纔回落
阿思達克 10-08 09:15
《香港電臺》報道,就中國多個省份近日需要限制用電,標普全球評級企業評級部資深董事張積豪認爲,隨着踏入冬季,內地將面對更大能源壓力,年底假期亦帶動生產用電需求,或加劇能源短缺,相信要待假期及冬季用電高峯過後才能紓緩,估計對供應鏈的影響短暫。如果事件影響較廣泛,今年中國經濟或只會按年增長8%,較原先預期下調0.3個百分點,明年增長則放緩至5.2%。 他提到,目前多國面對能源短缺,預計產品價格有上升壓力,中國通脹率或會由今年的0.9%,攀升至明年的1.8%。 此外,標普全球評級基礎設施評級部董事李?表示,今次能源短缺主要是煤炭供不應求,因爲經濟復甦帶動煤炭需求急升,可再生能源又未能填補市場需求,而中央早前推動供給側改革亦關閉低效煤礦,導致近期煤價急升。如果工業用電持續短缺,高耗電商品生產商或受影響,最終或進一步擾亂全球供應鏈,惟部分地方政府透過限制商用及工業用電,保障民用電力供應穩定,中央亦透過進口煤炭及提升產能應對,但煤價短期內仍可能處於高位,或要到明年纔回落。
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