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晨星:中國企業監管風險未結束 惟中概ADR具足夠安全邊際
晨星發佈《2021年第四季美國股票市場展望報告》指,隨着新冠變種病毒的案例呈下降趨勢,預計美國經濟將恢復正常化的步伐,寬護城河(wide-moat)股票,即具有長期競爭優勢公司的估值仍具吸引力。 晨星首席美國市場策略師Dave Sekera表示,考慮到中國政府最近採取的一系列監管行動,認爲中國企業面臨的監管風險還沒有結束。但認爲在價格下跌之後,許多中國企業的美國預託證券ADR提供足夠的安全邊際,足以充分補償投資者面對的風險,包括阿裏巴巴(BABA.US)、騰訊(TCEHY.US)、網易(NTES.US)、中石化(SNP.US)、百勝中國(YUMC.US)、京東(JD.US)、天境生物科技(IMAB.US)、攜程(TCOM.US)及百度(BIDU.US)。 對於美國經濟前景,報告指美國GDP將強勁復甦,預料今年經濟增長6%,明年和後年分別增長4.3%和2.9%,並料聯邦基金利率將在2023年之前保持在零水平。晨星美國經濟研究主管Preston Caldwell預測,通脹將在2022年放緩,但即使通脹持續的時間超過預期,寬護城河股票通常更有能力承受成本上漲,表現亦較穩健。 美股板塊方面,報告認爲,能源股在7月份遭受重創後,仍是最被低估的板塊,其次是消費週期性行業。至於成長型股票在第三季度的表現好過價值型和核心類股票,隨着持續的經濟復甦,將繼續利好價值型股票表現。
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