高盛:增公營房屋關鍵為執行力,料本地地產股反應正面
新一份施政報吿昨日公佈,高盛發表研究報吿,稱香港整體房屋供應自2015年左右才有所增加。過去幾年私人住宅落成量每年平均約1.5萬夥,中期目標亦相若;施政報吿除了提到目標為每年約1萬個私人住宅供應外(不包括市建局及其他私人土地發展項目),無任何新資料。此外,政府預計私樓供應將“穩定”。
該行認為,供應問題的重點在於公營房屋方面。於3年前,公營對私營單位的比例目標由6:4改為7:3,而目前完成率約5:5。公營房屋方面,供應量平均每年約1.5萬夥,政府目標是未來5年內增至約2.2萬夥,該行認為執行是關鍵。農地轉換和土地共享先導計劃均為增加更多公營及私營房屋計劃的一部分,相關經驗反映由概念到實現的時間很長。另該行由有覆蓋發展商所得資料,發現由首次向政府提交申請到實際改變土地用途平均需時約11年,之後再需要4至5年才能將單位推出市場。
該行維持對香港住宅物業價格預測,2022及2023年預期分別升5%及3%。雖然過去5年供應有所增加,未來中期亦估計會持續,但僅能夠配合需求。
另外,該行估計本地地產股的股價反應正面,維持多隻股份評級及目標價。對新鴻基地產(0016.HK)評級為“買入”,目標價145港元;長實集團(1113.HK)評級為“中性”,目標價61港元;新世界發展(0017.HK)評級為“買入”,目標價57港元;恆基地產(0012.HK) 評級為“中性”,目標價41港元;信和置業(0083.HK)評級為“買入”,目標價14港元;嘉裏建設(0683.HK)評級為“買入”,目標價42港元。
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