郭思治: 大市在反覆中再呈欲試底之弱態
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨(6日)先升後跌,恆指早市先高開155點至24,259點,但由於買盤不繼,加上零碎沽壓再現,故整個大市卒開始掉頭回落,其後跌勢越來越急,而恆指亦進一步跌至23,812點方漸見喘定並作技術性後抽,惟買盤始終較虛怯,故市勢只是略爲收窄跌幅,恆指最後報收23,966點,較上日跌137點,全日總成交金額爲1,039億元,從走勢上看,以恆指報收在23,966點計,似已稍跌離本月4日之高位24,478點,反之,卻漸跌近5日之低位23,681點,即是說,大市屬欲試底之形態,再一次指出,恆指一旦跌穿5日之低位23,681點,其時較具防守性之支持據點將退守至去年9月25日之低位23,124點。
目前困擾大市之利淡因素頗多,首先,恆大之債務問題需時解決,且事態似已漸影響其他負債偏重的內房股,另內地電慌問題亦不能輕視,因問題會影響全條工業生產線,單看理文造紙(02314.HK)及玖龍紙業(02689.HK)近日之跌勢已可知事態之嚴重,還有美股月來之表現明顯已漸趨反覆,照形勢看,技術上可能會漸進入中期大升浪後之正常調整中,由於不明因素並不會短期內消失,故投資者最好是儘量保留實力,切勿貪平急進。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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