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植耀輝: 短期變數多 港股走勢未明朗
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股踏入10月後恆指走勢似乎未見太大改善。事實上短期變數仍相當複雜,當中較受關注爲內地經濟表現以及內房相關消息。預期恆指暫維持反覆格局不變,於23,500至25,000點上落。至於美股短期仍處調整階段,除了觀望本週非農數據外,季績公佈在即亦會影響個股表現,所以不妨先忍一忍手,待業績期再作部署。 股份方面,談談中車時代電氣(03898.HK)。該股日前曾被熱炒,其一是回A因素,其次則是看好其IGBT發展。IGBT其實是電控系統中用於精準調控的開關,用於調節電路中的電壓、電流、頻率等,應用範疇相當廣泛,例如鐵路動車組,以至新能源車、智慧電網、光伏等行業。當中由於新能源車在車載逆變器、升壓器、電空調驅動以至車載充電器(OBC)等均需要使用IGBT,因此IGBT是新能源車中除電池外第二大受益之零部件。根據IDC估計,新能源車帶來之IGBT市場需求將由2020年之41億元增長至2025年之191億元人民幣,年複合增長率達到36.03%。相比之下,同期來自光伏IGBT市場之增長預測,年複合增長率則只有15.31%。 不過IGBT市場基本上長期被德國英飛凌、日本富士電機及三菱電機等海外公司壟斷,市佔率超過70%。內地近年亦越來越多企業從事相關產業,例如中車時代、比亞迪(01211.HK)及士蘭微等。中車時代發展IGBT並不陌生,早於2008年該公司已收購英國Dynex Semiconductor,並開始發展相關產業,其後於2014年建成中國首條8英寸IGBT產線,不過當時集中軌道交通領域,現時則已拓展新能源車IGBT,相關生產線正式投產後每年將新增24萬片中低壓IGBT產能,約可滿足240萬臺新能源汽車需求。 無疑IGBT業務有相當憧憬,只是業績表現暫未見突出,上半年中車時代營業額下跌4.9%,股東應佔溢利亦僅微升1%,IGBT的實質貢獻仍有待觀察;此外中車時代在回A前爲北水愛股之一,現時持股量亦接近三成,未來會否進一步減持值得關注。所以雖然具一定賣點,但暫仍只建議列爲觀察名單而已。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ******** 恆指持續受壓於10天線水平 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(5日)美股三大指數反彈,道指曾升逾400點,Facebook (FB.US)彈逾2%,比特幣價格突破5萬美元;油價升近七年高位,布油突破每桶82美元;金龍中國指數升2.7%,創一個月來最大升幅,京東(JD.US)、拼多多(PDD.US)對指數貢獻最大。行政長官林鄭月娥今日(6日)將於立法會發表任內最後一份《施政報告》,市場抱觀望會否推出房地產相關政策。恆大(03333.HK)風波未能平息,其於本港兩個樓盤恆大-珺瓏灣和恆大-睿峯,近日遭美聯入稟高院,追討賣樓傭金,涉及約4,748.89萬元。 從技術走勢上,恆指再度受壓於10天線水平,上週高位24,694點亦未能打破過往一浪低於一浪的格局,恆指假若跌穿24,000點將以9月21日低位23,771點作最後支持,最悲觀的情況下將會下跌至去年10月低位23,124點。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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