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《大行報告》美銀證券:市場對抗新冠候選藥消息反應過度 維持康希諾-B(06185.HK)及藥明生物(02269.HK)「買入」評級
美銀證券發表研究報告,默克藥廠(MRK.US)及合作夥伴Ridgeback上周五(10月1日)宣布抗新冠病毒候選藥Molnupiravir三期臨床試驗MOVe-OUT中期分析數據顯示,可以降低死亡及住院風險達百分之五十。默克計劃盡快向美國食品藥物管理局(FDA)申請緊急使用授權。公司料今年底前生產1,000萬劑藥品,明年將加大產能。默克亦已與美國政府訂立採購協議,涉約170萬劑藥品。 考慮市場潛在有效新冠藥品面世,許多投資者相信未來新冠將更像流感一樣,對疫苗的迫切性將不如以往般高。一些投資者或預期,許多國家推進疫苗接種的力度將放緩,而其他新冠藥品研發步伐將受影響。因此,許多新冠疫苗/藥品股昨日(4日)大幅下挫,康希諾生物-B(06185.HK)挫22.9%,復星醫藥(02196.HK)跌19.1%,藥明生物(02269.HK)亦跌8.6%。 該行認為市場反應過度,因為相較於疫苗,Molnupiravir尚未被視為更優越的療法;在醫藥經濟學角度而言,預防勝於治療;由於現時臨床數據有限,Molnupiravir仍有潛在風險。其他醫藥公司仍有需要開發潛在同類最優藥品。考慮中國及其他發展中國家尚未被滿足的需求,維持對康希諾生物的預測及正面看法,維持「買入」評級及目標價412.75元;對藥明生物而言,料其重大積壓訂單不受影響,維持「買入」評級及目標價167.6元。
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