植耀輝: 美股10月開局不俗 港股變數多續波動
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股踏入10月開局不俗,默克藥廠(Merck)(MRK.US)公布其新冠口服藥臨床試驗數據理想,刺激股價大升之餘,亦刺激一眾航空及消費休閑股之表現,加上投資者對債務上限之擔憂稍為減少,亦利好上周五(1日)美股表現。最終道指大升482點或1.43%,收報34,326點,為2003年10月以來最佳開局,納指及標普500指數分別上升0.82%及1.15%,收報14,566點及4,357點。
港股方面,上周五國慶假期休市。總結第三季港股表現強差人意,恆指、國指及科指均錄得跌幅,恆科指數跌幅更達到25%,科指成份股幾乎全線下跌。至於恆指及國指跌幅較少,但亦分別下跌15%及18%。
展望第四季,基於不少變數仍在,預期大市仍會維持反覆偏軟格局,短期需繼續關注內地雙限所帶來之影響,而恆大(03333.HK)事件及新經濟相關監管消息亦繼續左右投資氣氛。另外企業亦會陸續公布第三季營運數據,表現亦會對後市有較大啟示。另一要留意之地方則是美股方面。美股過去數個交易日大幅波動,疫苗開發消息加上對債務上限之擔憂對美股衝擊不少,基於美股今年累積升幅不少,故雖然繼續看好其表現,但短期出現一成調整幅度亦合理。預期恆指短期將續於23,700至25,000點上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指將於10天線爭持
耀才研究部稱,上周五(1日)美股先跌後升,展望本周,周一OPEC+將會舉行會議,留意油組國會否增產。另外,美國多名聯儲官員將會相繼發言,而且周五將公布重磅非農就業數據,市場預測為50萬個,市場觀望態度較濃厚。港股迎來第四季首個交易日,北水暫時缺席,大市將暫在10天線水平爭持。恆大(03333.HK)及恆大物業(06666.HK)開市前停牌,留意收購合併之消息。
從技術走勢上,恆指於10天線持續下移的情況下首次收於該水平以上,留意需連續站穩三日才能成功造成支持,同時要升穿9月23日高位即24,827點,才能打破過往一浪低於一浪的格局。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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