《大行報告》中金下調玖紙(02689.HK)目標價至12.5元 評級「中性」
中金發表研究報告指,玖龍紙業(02689.HK)公布2021財年業績,純利按年增長70%,下半財年純利增幅亦達64%,符合市場預期。
該行指出,需求淡季加上成本上升,令下半財年淨利潤率較上半財年有所收窄,下跌2.9個百分點至10.1%,但受惠於上半財年有約200萬噸新增產能落地,全年成品紙銷量按年增長8%至1,646萬噸,每噸紙均價亦升11%至3,740元人民幣,每噸淨利增長至約430元。
公司近期宣布多個基地國慶節假期後產品每噸普漲價100元人民幣,中金認為將有助於穩定下半年利潤率水平。管理層預期年初公布的1,000萬噸漿紙產能投產規劃中,有部分項目可能延期落地,中金認為,在雙碳要求逐步落地、燃煤供應持續緊平衡的情況下,若能耗指標管控持續嚴格,小企業新建產能基本難以落地,加上成本壓力高漲推動小企業出清,行業格局有望改善,當中龍頭企業項目投產週期普遍延後,中期行業供需可能明顯好過市場預期。
中金指出,在燃料價格回歸正常後,玖紙及其他紙企龍頭利潤率將可改善,中期利潤率可望維持相對高位,由於調整公司機制紙量價假設,將2022財年盈利預測下調20%至65億元人民幣,預期2023財年盈利可達70億元人民幣,維持「中性」評級,並下調目標價22%至12.5元。
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