穆迪:監管從嚴令中國影子銀行資產規模繼續下降
評級機構穆迪表示,上半年中國影子銀行資產規模急劇下降,預期資管新規將在今年年底前開始實施,影子銀行資產規模將會進一步收縮。
穆迪指出,今年上半年廣義影子銀行資產減少1.34萬億元人民幣,降至57.8萬億元人民幣,疫情後經濟反彈亦導致影子銀行資產佔名義GDP的比例降低。目前佔比從2020年底的58.3%大幅降至52.9%,爲近年最低點。
穆迪預期,中國監管機構可能會允許下半年信貸增速加快,從而支持經濟增長,但信貸增速和名義GDP增速之間的差距仍然會繼續縮小,因此相信今年內經濟體系槓桿率有望趨穩;又指上半年GDP增速超越信貸增速,推動槓桿率下降。
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