《大行報告》大摩:內地多地限電 料鋁業受益 火電企業利潤率憂慮降
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,中國目前已經有20個省分實施限電,認為若限電措施在今年餘下時間持續,MSCI中國今年盈利增長預測可能會下滑至熊市情境的11%,上游和公用股在短期內將對此最為敏感,不過走勢各異。該行認為,鋁業或受惠於供應短缺以及原材料價格上漲,同時市場對火電企業利潤率下降的憂慮減少,雖然大部分下游行業短期受到的影響輕微可控,但長遠來說令人關注。
大摩指,若限電措施持續到明年,有較大市場份額以及較多離岸生產線的公司有可能相對地受惠。該行表示,中國企業在今年第四季的盈利不確定性正在增加,短期內對大中華板塊保持審慎看法。在基本預測情況下,該行將今年恆指預測由26,900點,降至24,400點。在最壞情景下,恆指或會跌至20,500點。
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