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《大行報告》高盛降內地今年經濟增長預測至7.8% 高耗電行業限產衝擊加劇
阿思達克 09-28 13:02
高盛發表研究報告指,近期內地對高能源消耗行業限產,致本身已面臨重大下行壓力的經濟前景進一步受壓。限產主要源於省政府監管壓力加大,以達至今年能源使用目標,但某程度上亦反映能源價格上升。國家發改委8月中旬發表評級,指9個省份上半年在能源使用上表現差勁,據報該等省份被要求加大力度令表現在9月中旬重回軌道。 按照被點名省份,受影響經濟活動佔比(該行估算44%),以及限產程度預測等,該行估算今年餘下時間工業生產及整體經濟活動將受衝擊。初步估算料對內地今年第三季GDP帶來約1個百分點的年化衝擊,對第四季衝擊力度料倍升。 高盛調整了今年中國財政赤字預測,由原先的相當於GDP約11.6%下修至11%,遠低於去年的16.4%,反映下半年財赤較低。由於乘數效應相對低以及傳統滯後,高盛下調中國第三季增長預測25點子,並降第四季增長預測50點子。 報告表示,計及上述調整,考慮高能源消耗行業限產以及財政刺激略爲收縮等影響。按季計,內地第三季增長預測由1.3%下修至零增長;第四季增長預測由8.5%下調至6%。按年計,高盛下調內地第三季、第四季及全年經濟增長預測,由原先的5.1%、4.1%及8.2%,下調至分別4.8%、3.2%及7.8%。明年中國經濟增長預測由5.6%輕微下調至5.5%。今年第四季經濟增長仍面對多項不確定性,上行及下行風險主要關乎政府處理恆大(03333.HK)危機的手法、環保目標執法的嚴厲程度,以及未來政策寬鬆力度等。
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