《大行報告》高盛下調新奧(02688.HK)/中燃氣(00384.HK)/潤燃(01193.HK)目標價3%-4%
高盛發表報告,對投資者關注的問題表述了看法,包括天然氣成本上升對分銷商利潤率的影響,以及中國房地產開發商去槓桿化壓力帶來潛在風險等。
高盛指,75%至90%的分銷商通常從國有企業購買大部分的天然氣,並從現貨液化天然氣市場購買5%至15%的天然氣。鑑於國有企業的天然氣銷售價格波動越來越大,以及進入冬季的現貨液化天然氣價格居高不下,如果部分上游成本增長不能完全轉嫁,預計分銷商下半年的美元利潤率將較上半年下降4%。
高盛又指,雖然天然氣分銷商的新連接量部分是由舊公寓的連接驅動,但總連接的增長仍與新公寓竣工比例有關係。該行房地產團隊將2021年的新房開工率預測由-1%下調至-7%,並將2022年預測下調至-15%,預計房地產開發商的信貸緊縮將在未來幾年內持續。雖然房屋竣工可能在短期內保持強勁,以反映過去2至3年的房屋預售情況,但2021年至2022年新開工的預期疲軟將可能轉化為2023至2024年的房屋竣工疲軟,因此將分銷商2023至2024年的連接量數目預測減少5%至10%,以反映住房竣工的潛在疲軟。
另外,高盛指出,天然氣銷售亦將受到負面影響。根據該行宏觀團隊,恆大(03333.HK)相關新聞已經開始引起投資者的擔憂,擔心潛在的無序違約會對中國經濟增長帶來巨大的下行風險。目前該行經濟學家的基本假設,仍然是預測對2022年GDP的負面影響可能是1.4%,前提是假設房地產市場漸進地去槓桿化,且恆大相關風險不會對金融系統和其他開發商產生重大的負面溢出效應。而在更悲觀的情況下,則預計2022年GDP的2.5%至4.1%可能受到影響。鑑於已經假設2022年的中國天然氣需求增長比2021年慢,暫時保持原有預測不變,亦即天然氣銷售可能會因經濟放緩而受到影響。
個股方面,高盛重申對新奧能源(02688.HK)和中燃氣(00384.HK)的「買入」評級,目標價分別由170元及30元,下調至163元及29元。潤燃(01193.HK)則維持「賣出」評級,目標價由48元下調至46元,因盈利增長比同行慢,且市盈率接近行業歷史平均水平,反映風險回報不如同行,同時較易受到邊際利潤率和天然氣銷售量波動的影響,因為天然氣銷售的利潤份額較高。
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