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克魯格曼:恆大(03333.HK)非「雷曼時刻」 更像日本泡沫爆破前
阿思達克 09-27 11:10
外媒報道,2008年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)認為,中國恆大(03333.HK)的債務危機不是中國的「雷曼時刻」,但可能是「babaru時刻」。 「babaru」是日文的外來語,意思是泡沫(bubble)。日本於1980年代末遭遇「泡沫經濟」,當時許多資產價格狂飆。克魯格曼指出,日本資產泡沫爆破雖未導致金融崩潰,但經歷了一段漫長的經濟疲弱期。從許多方面而言,中國的現況與日本大不相同,但總體經濟情況卻有一點與當年日本泡沫快爆裂時非常類似。一方面,中國的人口結構愈來愈像日本,工作年齡人口在2015年達到頂峰,儘管已廢除一孩政策,惟人口下降趨勢至少近年內無法逆轉。 另一方面,現在中國經濟嚴重失衡,如同泡沫年代的日本,包括消費者支出疲弱,投資水位很高。投資支出佔國內生產總值(GDP)比率超過40%,對一個人口增長快速、技術進步直逼富國的經濟體而言,或許合理;但中國在整體技術水平上仍落後西方和日本,生產力增長也在趨緩。
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