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“木頭姐”力挺顛覆性科技行業並不存在泡沫
uSMART盈立智投 09-23 22:27

方舟投資公司創始人凱西·伍德(Cathie Wood)認爲,顛覆性科技行業並不存在泡沫。週三,伍德在晨星投資會議上表示,市場缺少的是平臺之間的融合,而技術平臺的融合對特斯拉(TSLA.US)尤其有利,因爲該公司融合了三個平臺,分別是能源存儲、人工智能和機器人技術。此外,伍德還指出,方舟投資公司關注的五項技術——DNA測序、機器人技術、能量存儲、人工智能和區塊鏈技術——正在共同發展。

與之觀點不同的Research Affiliates董事長羅布·阿諾特(Rob Arnott)特則表示,由於Research Affiliates的很多工作是基於長期均值迴歸理論,因此其對泡沫的定義是你需要使用不合理的假設來證明當前價格的合理性,而識別泡沫的風險則在於,不合理的增長假設並不意味着不可能發生。

阿諾特指出亞馬遜(AMZN.US)就是這樣一個例子,因爲其“在21世紀是一項糟糕的投資”,而如今卻已是最大的公司之一。不過阿諾特也補充道,極具破壞性的亞馬遜最大的受益者並不是股東,而是客戶。

阿諾特稱:“當出現泡沫時,泡沫可能出現在任何地方,它們往往會破裂,但並不總是破裂。”此外,他建議,泡沫可能會更持久,所以在做空泡沫時需要小心。

伍德則評論道,亞馬遜是典型的平臺。考慮到人工智能及其重要性,最好的人工智能專家將在這些機會中佔有最大份額。而另一個讓她相信顛覆性科技行業沒有泡沫的因素是2008-2009年危機給投資者帶來的恐懼,這種肌肉記憶仍然存在,投資者在動盪期間更在意風險,而不是機會。但實際上在最嚴重的金融危機期間,創新具有比大多數投資者預期更大的吸引力。

例如,在2008年至2009年前後,由於技術預算被削減了20-30%,CRM軟件服務提供商Salesforce(CRM.US)在經濟蕭條時期實現了20%的收入增長。與此同時,儘管零售銷售額在下降,亞馬遜銷售額也在此期間實現了14%的增長。

最後,伍德和阿諾特同意的一個領域是,他們都表示,金融服務業顛覆的時機已經成熟。

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