《大行報告》美銀證券上調中鋁(02600.HK)目標價至8元 評級「買入」
美銀證券發表研究報告,在疫情後反彈後,全球增長已見頂,該行全球商品團隊指出跨種商品進一步價格上行面臨風險。內地政府正出手重組商品密集行業,在物業市場收緊信貸、持續遏制排污(損害鋼鐵生產及鐵礦砂需求),以及汽車芯片短缺下,致商品需求下降。
該行升今年鋁價預測0.4%至每噸2,465美元,及明年升13%至每噸3,250美元。認爲除中國內地外,全球鋁生產商均缺乏意欲加大投資和產量。而中國鋁價則受減產和新生產線押後,4,500萬噸產能上限未達限所支持;至今187萬噸產能已被停止,料未來更多;新能源車、再生能源和出口增長多於房地產業潛在下行。雖然鋁面對短期下行風險,但基本面仍然穩健。
該行升中國鋁業(02600.HK)2021至2023年鋁銷售均價預測介乎3%至21%,並升氧化鋁銷售均價預測介乎5%至9%,2021至2023年盈測升介乎34%至109%,以現金流折現率計,目標價由6.8元升至8元,重申「買入」評級,併爲內地金屬及鋼行業首選。
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