《大行報告》匯豐研究:地產股看好新地(00016.HK)及信置(00083.HK) 評級「買入」
匯豐環球研究發表報告,對外媒有關中央政府要求香港大型發展商協助解決本港房屋供應短缺問題的報道,該行並不感到意外。國務院港澳辦主任夏寶龍7月時提及,香港的住房問題將於2049年得到很大的改善,特別是(當刀)房及籠屋問題。雖然重點放在公共房屋政策上,而非私人住宅方面,惟受避險情緒影響下,地產股表現短期受壓。
在地產發展商中,該行較為看好新地(00016.HK)及信和置業(00083.HK),均予以「買入」評級,認為新地的可開發土儲規模龐大,且經常性收入增加,盈利可見度優於同業,而信置則為淨現金狀況(約相當於其市值49%),足以應付市場不確定性。
該行認為,發展商可透過釋放其農地儲備以解決香港房屋短缺的問題,方法包括土地共享試點計劃,或透過《收回土地條例》收回農地,前者可利用開發商的執行力,向公眾提供公共房屋,而後者可助政府直接促進總體規劃。然而,如部分發展商高度依賴透過農地儲備而補充其土儲,則有機會影響公司盈利能力。
此外,該行亦對發展商進行敏感性分析,如他們向政府免費提供農地儲備,在納入各種房地產價格的情況下,假設香港樓價下跌10%,則該行對發展商的資產淨值預測降5.5%,而他們的2022及2023財年的溢利,亦將下降7.1至7.3%。
關鍵在於即將於10月6日公布的《施政報告》,屆時可更清楚了解香港即將出台的樓市政策方向。
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