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《大行報告》瑞銀:農地收回可作解決當前房屋短缺替代方案
瑞銀髮表報告指,《路透》報道中央與本港發展商舉行閉門會議,發展商被告知要協助解決住屋短缺問題後,本港主要發展商昨日(20日)股價下挫10%至13%。在最差情境下,該行憂慮本港有機會推出類似內地的收緊措施,例如限價、家庭限購和租金上限等。 瑞銀相信,本港發展商可能會受到數方面的影響,包括房屋供應增加令主要市場樓價受壓;由於轉換可能性減少,令農地價值下降;發展商毛利率或由去年的約40%回覆正常至只有約15%(假設樓價不變);及來自國企發展商的競爭加劇。在本地發展商中,該行估計恆地(00012.HK)或受到最大影響,因集團擁有最多的農地儲備,約4,500萬平方尺,緊隨爲新地(00016.HK)的3,100萬平方尺、新世界(00017.HK)的1,600萬平方尺,及長實(01113.HK)的1,000萬平方尺。 不過,瑞銀又認爲農地收回是可作爲解決本港當前房屋短缺的替代方案。根據港府2017年的土地規劃,香港未來三十年最少需要4,800公頃的土地發展,而洪水橋、古洞北粉嶺北,加上元朗南等新發展區僅佔1,041公頃,獨立土地發展亦只佔590公頃,至於「明日大嶼」計劃的1,700公頃需要最少15年完成。 因此爲解決即時房屋短缺問題,該行估計港府或會將焦點轉至發展商新界農地及祖堂地收回,兩者分別有1,000及2,400公頃,估計相當於7.7個洪水橋新發展區的規模,並可逐步容納/供應約170萬人口/60萬個單位。
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