《大行報告》高盛料涉內房不良貸款或令內銀股盈利波動 但料理財產品下行不構成重大威脅
高盛發表研究報告,回應投資者就內房風險溢出的主要憂慮,包括影子銀行風險、按揭不良貸款及按揭融資。
整體而言,該行認為,以銀行理財產品為象徵的影子銀行問題,在樓市下行時料不會對內銀體系構成重大威脅,但按揭不良貸款的潛在任何增加,或致內銀盈利波動性加劇。
高盛相信內銀可繼續為物業市場提供融資,惟實際增幅視乎其負債表的擴張,倘樓價沒大幅調整,料2021至2023年各年新按揭資產分別4.3萬億、4.2萬億及5.7萬億元人民幣,但料樓價去槓桿周期或較原先預期為長。
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