《大行報告》里昂引述內銀指涉高槓桿發展商風險敞口有限 該行料內地微調房產融資政策
里昂發表報告表示,上周在投資者論壇上與數間內銀代表進行交流,投資者均關注內房信貸風險趨升,而內銀代表對相關資產質素的前景均抱較樂觀的態度,該行指上市銀行早已用謹慎態度去處理房地產開發商信貸,並實施了「白名單」及項目主要集中在一及二線城市,料內銀受到高槓桿發展商的風險敞口有限。
該行引述內銀代表透露,過去幾年已早作相關撥備,截至今年6月內銀系統的撥備相關總額為5.4萬億元人民幣,指抵押貸款風險較低,相關貸款額相對價值比率較低。該行認為,防範系統性風險仍然是內地政策制定者的底線,料當局有足夠的工具來確保有序的去風險過程。在溢出風險上升的情況下,該行預計監管機構將微調房地產融資政策。
里昂指,內房行業的內外均出現溢出效應,今年8月份全國房地產銷售按年下降兩位數字,許多開發商已轉向保守。過去一個月土地拍賣失敗個案增加,對地方政府收入和債務發行構成壓力。從此看來,內地政府介入的可能性越來越大。由於銀行近一半的貸款賬簿與房地產有關,該行相信政策制定者將採取必要措施防範系統性風險。在政策工具中,流動性注入(如降準)可能會被採用,而監管機構可能會微調房地產融資政策。
該行料農行(01288.HK)、中行(03988.HK)、建行(00939.HK)及工行(01398.HK)、招行(03968.HK)旗下內房行業企業貸款於總體貸款佔比各為5.2%、4.4%、4.1%、3.7%、6.4%;該行料民生銀行(01988.HK)及平安銀行(000001.SZ)旗下內房行業企業貸款於總體貸款佔比分別為10.3%及10.1%,而行業平均佔比5%。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.