芯片真的極度短缺嗎？訂單真實性存疑
由於半導體行業正面臨嚴重短缺的局面，導致客戶在爭搶芯片供應，因此從短缺資源配置的角度看，半導體行業與美國公司債券市場有些相似之處。
衆所周知，由於在公司債券剛發行的時候，發行的價格都比較低，這時候投資者申購新發行的債券所需的費用很少，之後再將債券賣出去可以獲得比較高的收益，而新債上市後一般都不會跌破面值，幾乎不會出現虧損，因此對新債券交易的需求往往超過了供應。
例如，Verizon(VZ.US)發售490億美元公司債券，最後吸引了價值1000億美元的認購;蘋果(AAPL.US)在2013年發行了170億美元的債券，最後收到了超過500億美元的認購。
然而，在熱門債券交易中決定誰能得到什麼往往是一個有爭議的過程。公司的大客戶，或者那些在未來更有可能購買債券的客戶往往會獲得優先選擇，而規模較小的投資者可能會完全被忽略。因此，這些規模小的投資者會有種增加購債規模的趨勢，以達成債券交易。
如今芯片市場客戶由於擔心無法獲得所需芯片數量，現在可能正在增加訂單以彌補差異。比如，當一個客戶在製作小部件，需要100個芯片。但你的供應商告訴你，可以先提供10個，剩下90個將會在50周後交付。
那麼，該客戶下一步將是在其他芯片供應處下單1000個芯片，以達到其生產100個芯片的需求，然後再取消訂單，這就是所謂的重複預訂，即客戶訂購的芯片數量超過實際需要，以希望在全球供應緊縮的情況下獲得更多產能以及合同芯片製造商的支持。
而重複預訂最危險之處在於其掩蓋了客戶需求的真實狀態，使半導體供應商更難應對。
此外，大摩認爲“整體半導體需求可能被高估了”，並稱已經看到智能手機、電視及電腦半導體需求轉弱的跡象，LCD驅動IC、利基型DRAM及智能手機感測器存在庫存問題。因此該行預計臺積電(TSM.US)及力積電等代工廠今年第四季度的訂單恐怕會遭到削減。
如今，半導體供應商“斬單”危機在即，分配芯片的過程也變得越來越低效。或許半導體供應商能效仿銀行評估債券投資人資質那樣，對芯片訂單的真實性進行研究，以篩選有真實需求的客戶，最終提高芯片分配效率，才能真正解決芯片短缺問題。
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