《專題》交銀國際對內地互聯網子行業規模預測、受監管政策影響看法(表)
交銀國際上週二(7日)發表報告,列出內地互聯網行業市場規模及用戶活躍度預測:
子行業│今年市場規模預測(人民幣)│月活躍用戶((MAU)│滲透率│日均使用時長(分鐘/人)
電商│11.38萬億元│8.12億戶│80.3%│領先平臺:15-20,其他:少於10
廣告│6,080億元│-│-│微信:80+,社交類:45-50,搜索類:40-45,新聞門戶:60-80
遊戲│3,050億元│5.09億戶│50.4%│不同類型:40-120
外賣│1.04萬億元│4.69億戶│46.4%│主要平臺:8-13
網絡音樂│430億元│6.81億戶│67.4%│主要平臺:15-30
網絡文學│310億元│4.61億戶│45.6%│主要平臺:30-60
網絡視頻│900億元│9.44億戶│93.4%│主要平臺:60-70
直播│790億元│6.38億戶│63.1%│主要平臺:40-50
短視頻│3,280億元│8.88億戶│87.8%│主要平臺:100+
社區團購│7,000億元│-│-│-
無人駕駛│2,360億元│-│-│-
雲│3,000億元│-│-│-
一體化物流│2.25萬億元│-│-│-
交銀國際亦列出監管政策對內地互聯網子行業影響看法:
子行業│政策影響:正面│政策影響:負面(企業層面)
電商│促進行發展及創新│競爭激烈,取消算法推薦影響個性化商品展示
廣告│改善用戶體驗,強化信息安全│或影響開屏廣告收入、影響平臺活躍度
遊戲│行業加強合規及未成年保護│強監管信號,未成年用戶數及收入佔比小
外賣│促進行業健康發展,加強配送員/商家支持│社保繳納
網絡音樂│降行業進入門檻│用戶或小幅流失
網絡文學│提升版權意識│-
網絡視頻│減少打投不良影響│對廣告/藝人經紀收入略有影響
直播│多頻道(MCN)監管將加強主播約束│對打賞排名、用戶誘導消費或部份影響收入
短視頻│-│取消算法推薦或降用戶活躍度及廣告轉化
社區團購│利好行業健康發展,加強對倉配物流建設│平臺增速節奏或放慢
無人駕駛│加快技術創新及行業發展│-
雲│產業數字化政策支持企業上雲,利好發展│-
一體化物流│鄉村振興、快遞進村等政策有望加快物流快遞企業下沉,基礎設施│-
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