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《專題》科網股進入強監管週期 料至少持續至年底 巨頭社會責任增
阿思達克 09-16 12:36
從2020年下半年開始,內地當局持續推出收緊監管措施,本次監管週期較以往長、行業覆蓋面大,從反壟斷、競爭、用戶數據保護、未成年人保護及員工福利等多方面對互聯網公司運營加以規範,平臺型及擁有較多用戶數據的公司有較大影響。瑞銀料內地對互聯網監管政策收緊仍在進行之中,料內地今輪對互聯網監管可能至少持續到2021年年底,從技術配置而言,估計尚未觸底,該行對內地互聯網行業抱持「減持」建議看法。 海通國際報告料內地科網股尚未見底,現時只是經歷了一半,料未來兩至三季有更多監管政策出臺,並擴展至更多縱向領域及業務分支。交銀國際本月初報告指,互聯網公司股價年初至今跌幅20%-60%回調明顯,行業平均對應2021年市盈率22倍,已經處於2019年平均的低點,監管或帶來新增長曲線,長期仍具投資價值。參照海外案例,科技巨頭面臨傳統主營業務增速放緩的情況下也需要不斷尋找新的增長點。 【週期較以往長 行業覆蓋面大】 內地平臺經濟近年迅速擴張,於消費者需求層面上本應是帶來更便利的生活,有利於推進科技創新活動。不過,在市場壟斷、無序擴張等問題日益顯現,去年底召開的中央經濟工作會議,首次明確今年經濟工作中其中一項重點任務,就是要「強化反壟斷和防止資本無序擴張」,主要是針對近年來內地資本過多聚焦於流量變現而不注重原創創新,以及對近年來資本利用技術優勢和監管不足等無序擴張的整頓和規範。 本輪監管重點主要聚焦行業健康發展,以及公平合理的市場競爭。據招商證券國際上週報告指,從去年年底至今,內地超過30多項針對互聯網行業的監管政策陸續出臺,並能被歸類爲(1)反壟斷、(2)金融科技、(3)社區團購業務、(4)數據安全、(5)員工福利、(6)未成年人保護以及(7)優惠稅率相關的監管政策。鑑於更廣的業務範圍以及更大的規模,互聯網龍頭公司相比各細分行業的二線龍頭受到的監管影響更大。展望未來,該行認爲監管逆風仍將持續,所以需要密切關注後續出臺的政策細則。 券商普遍認爲監管有利行業長期健康良性發展,互聯網在經濟中發揮的重要作用仍被認可,近期規範對股價和短期業績造成一定衝擊,影響小部分收入及用戶活躍度,但長期互聯網促進了整體經濟的良性運營。 【影響短期盈利 社會責任增加】 要評估全方位監管對行業影響,交銀國際指政策監管對行業短期影響主要體現在用戶活躍度、收入以及利潤端的不確定性,就電商平臺取消二選一,對各平臺品類及商戶增加幫助不大,但加大對平臺商戶的扶持增加傭金補貼。該行指外賣反壟斷仍在審查中,但該行認爲對行業格局變化影響不大。社保相關政策仍需進一步細化,按此前估算,或對單均配送成本增加0.3至0.5元人民幣,但需考慮各方分攤及平臺效率提升仍可能帶來優化,影響有限。(ta/w/t)~
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