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高盛:降物管股目標價 不過維持對行業長遠展望正面

高盛發表的研究報吿指,認為物管行業整體盈利能力自2017年開始改善,主要受惠新項目交付帶動物管服務利潤提升,加上增值服務貢獻提升。展望將來該行相信大部分高盛有覆蓋的物管股盈利能力將緩慢下行,主要因為外部增長積極將令利潤攤薄,同時在數碼化及新業務上的持續投資短期不會帶來很多盈利。此外,人工成本持續提升,加上監管環境趨緊,將是影響行業整體盈利能力的重要因素。高盛將雅生活(3319.HK)評級至“中性”,將寶龍商業(9909.HK)及旭輝永升服務(1995.HK)剔出“確信買入”名單,維持“買入”評級。

該行引入對2024年物管企業的每股盈測,估計平均收入將按年增長25%,但盈利僅增24%,以反映利潤率微跌,而2022至2024年的盈利平均年複合增長將降至28%,拖累目標價平均降18%,不過該行維持對行業長遠展望正面,認為假如經濟規模增加及各項業務協同效應浮面,利潤收窄情況可逆轉。此外亦留意到規模擴張或帶來潛在上行,甚至有機會可抵銷利潤率下跌的影響。

該行估計十五大物管企業到2025年規模年複合增長將為30%,市佔率將增長逾一倍至25%,當中最大的物管企業全國市佔率可達4%。高盛引述領先物管企業的高層指,由於中小型物管公司上市窗口已過,假如母企面對流動性壓力及監管收緊時,將期待有更吸引的收購機遇。該行認為為公共物業提供物管服務、城市營運及服務等將是新的增長引擎,對領先物管企業來説是藍海市場,估計該行覆蓋的四大物管企業相關收入到2025年的年複合增長將為40%。

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