大摩：電動車直銷模式對汽車經銷商帶來挑戰 看好美東、永達 降正通評級至“減持”
摩根士丹利發表研究報吿，指對內地汽車經銷商而言，由內燃車到電動車的過渡，減少了經銷商服務範圍，但改善了股本回報率。該行料至2025年，直銷模式將會是電動車生產商主要分銷方法。該行料汽車代工商(OEM)將會透過自營店更多參與分銷及售後服務，以直接接觸客户及獲取未來軟件收入，減少未來整個汽車經銷商行業的利潤池。不過，該行相信汽車經銷商受歡迎程度仍高於汽車品牌自營店，因經銷商最能揉合代工商與經銷商利益。
對能夠存活的經銷商而言，報吿稱，經銷模式帶來股本回報率高逾40%，在傳統特許經營下股本回報率少於30%，主因前期資本開支較低，更高的新車利潤率，以及更少的庫存融資成本。
報吿稱，失去電動車售後服務價值是汽車經銷商長遠負面因素，該行指銷售均價及維修頻率均有上行空間。不過，隨着電動車行業演變，將迎來新機遇，為頂級經銷商帶來售後服務潛在上行，因維修銷售均價更高，在一體化車身下，維修時或需要整個車件更換；倘只有少數經銷商投資於電動車維修，以及小型車房不能提供電動車維修服務，則客户挽留率料提升。由於智能電動車軟體更為先進，也帶來更高的維修頻率。
對於少數頂級汽車經銷商而言，大摩指出，即使利潤池收縮，仍能增加利潤。因經銷模式帶來資本開支減少，更佳現金流及更高股本回報率。不過，對大部分經銷商而言，電動車直銷模式帶來挑戰，意味更少利潤分享，更少服務機會及更少的售後服務價值。
該行維持予美東汽車(1268.HK)“增持”評級，目標價升至50港元，受惠下全年開店速度加快，以及在偏遠城市電動車帶來的挑戰仍較小。該行維持予永達汽車(3669.HK)“增持”評級，目標價則降至17港元，反映今年上海內燃車配額減少。該行降正通汽車(1728.HK) 評級由“與大市同步”下調至“減持”，在現時經營不確定性下，公司與電動車初創尋求合作存在挑戰。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
