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報吿:中國五大豬肉生產商兩年半內總債務增加近三倍
格隆匯9月13日丨據CNBC,標準普爾全球評級公司週三在一份報吿中表示,為了利用2019年豬肉價格翻倍的機會,中國五大豬肉生產(牧原、正邦、温氏、新希望、天邦)尋求快速擴張,在兩年半時間裏將總債務增加了近三倍。上週四公佈的CPI顯示,8月份中國主要肉類價格同比下降44.9%。標準普爾全球評級副董事、該報吿的作者之一Flora Chang表示,2018年開始爆發的非洲豬瘟迅速使中國的生豬產量減少了約40%。高價格吸引大型豬肉生產商提高產量,且由於2020年的冠狀病毒大流行,融資很容易獲得。於是豬企紛紛利用政府補貼進行擴產。標普的報吿指出,由於根據價格預測進行規劃的能力有限,企業突然揹負了極高水平的債務。在截至6月30日的12個月裏,温氏股份(300498.SZ)的債務/利潤(息税折舊攤銷前)比率從2020年的1.9倍躍升至9倍以上。牧原股份(002714.SZ)受到非洲豬瘟的影響較小,其債務槓桿率在截至6月底的12個月內僅略有上升,從1倍升至1.3倍。隨着股票投資者也紛紛湧入,推動新希望(000876.SZ)等主要生豬生產商的股價在2019年飆升174%。但在去年上漲16%之後,該股今年迄今已累計下跌逾45%。分析師們預計,中國五大豬肉生產商的市場份額可能會從6月份的10.5%升至15%以上,而美國五大生產商的市場份額為30%。

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