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《大行報告》摩通:中國出口額創新高顯航運需求強勁 建議「增持」中遠海控(01919.HK)等
摩根大通近日發表集裝箱運輸行業報告表示,強勁的終端需求一直是航運現貨運費持續上漲的關鍵因素,中國在今年8月份出口額創下歷史新高,此反映趨勢強勁,但更重要是顯示出未滿足的被壓抑的需求(此或意味著實際出口應該更高),考慮到由於流動性限制和南京因新冠疫情的爆發也導致寧波舟山港(按吞吐量計算為世界第三大集裝箱港口)部分關閉,此前鹽田港關閉的連鎖反應引發了相關反應。 該行認為,全球貿易效率仍然受到很大阻礙,包括船舶、港口運力、卡車、集裝箱、甚至連卡車司機均呈短缺。美國主要港口運營商預計相關供應壓力至少會持續到2022年年中,因為世界各地的疫情捲土重來導致各個港口採取嚴格防疫措施。 摩通表示,在行業中建議「增持」中遠海控(01919.HK)(601919.SH)、東方海外(00316.HK)及長榮(2603.TW),因與歐洲和日本同業相比估值更具吸引力。 該行指﹐航運現貨運價費(以SCFI(上海出口集裝箱運價指數)運價指數為代表)已連續十七周保持增長。截至9月3日當週,上海集裝箱貨運指數(SCFI)升至歷史新高(按周升2.7%及按年升241%)。鑑於近期有利的運價前景,該行認為這可能會激勵更高的鎖定比率,從而支持2022年收入交付表現。
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