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《大行報告》花旗:內需股下半年首選蒙牛(02319.HK)、潤酒(00291.HK)及李寧(02331.HK)
花旗發表報告表示,在該行覆蓋的衆多內需股中,只有10只中期盈利超出預期,有22只表現遜預期。該行表示,根據投資者反饋,內地運動服飾股爲最受關注板塊,而下遊奶製品及白酒行業則被低估。 該行認爲,今年下半年內需股首選買入股份,包括蒙牛(02319.HK)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)和李寧(02331.HK),認爲第三季零售行業放緩情況可能更加明顯,市場波動較大,並建議投資者增持市場預期較低且估值有吸引力的股票,包括滔搏(06110.HK)、貴州茅臺(600519.SH)、中國飛鶴(06186.HK)及萬洲國際(00288.HK)。 花旗表示,基於今年第三季潛在放緩及第四季較高基數等不確定性因素,大部分上半年表現較好的公司都未有上調下半年經營指引,該行預計今年第三季銷售渠道庫存壓力將增加,可能導致下半年出現去庫存情況,料採用直接零售模式的品牌將面臨利潤壓力。該行料渠道庫存管理方法保守、意金流充足的公司(如李寧)所遇到的風險會較低。
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