《大行報告》高盛將平安(02318.HK)剔出確信買入名單 降內險股目標價
高盛發表報告,更新對中資保險商的預測,以反映今年上半年的業績、行業發展趨勢,及下半年至今投資市場的波動。該行預期,在新業務銷售增長疲弱下,行業經紀人數在下半年會繼續下降。另外,由於投資市場波動及剩餘利潤(residual margin)增長放慢,估計行業今年下半年的盈利會下降,將中國人壽(02628.HK)、中國平安(02318.HK)、中國太保(02601.HK)、新華人壽(01336.HK)及中國太平(00966.HK)下半年的盈利預測下調11%至24%。
隨着壽險險商適應經紀人數減少,高盛喜好人數較2019/20年高峯有大幅下跌,及於今年上半年有穩定毛利率的保險公司,相信此等因素是顯示經紀重組計劃實行良好的指標,並預期有關企業可有更早的復甦,及於明年及2023年有更佳的新業務價值/盈利增長。
高盛下調內險股目標價,將中國平安剔出確信買入名單,認爲集團於上半年的經紀人數跌幅較預期爲大,降低了近期新業務增長的能見度,並推遲該行對其首年新業務價值轉正預測由今年押後至明年。詳細投資評級及目標價見另表。
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