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大和:鋰價有望持續上漲 升贛鋒鋰業目標價至225港元
格隆匯 09-02 13:06

大和發表研究報吿指,贛鋒鋰業(1772.HK)上半年經常性淨利潤為8.35億元人民幣,符合公司指引。該行表示,鑑於碳酸鋰中國現貨價值每噸均超過11萬元人民幣,市場情緒積極,鋰價有望持續上漲。該行將贛鋒鋰業2021至22年每股盈利上調3.5%至6.6%,並將其目標價由205港元升至225港元,重申買入評級。

報吿指,鋰電價格上漲速度快於生產成本上漲速度,管理層認為中國鋰電價格有望持續上升,下半年碳酸鋰平均售價可能創新高;至於氫氧化鋰,由於簽了長期合同,平均售價上漲速度相對緩慢,但預計最終會趕上碳酸鋰的平均售價。儘管鋰輝石現貨價格飆升,但公司的生產成本仍在緩慢上升,因為公司仍有6個月的鋰輝石庫存(約300KT),長期合同採購價格低於公開市場報價(900-1000美元/噸)。管理層指,由於氫氧化鋰合同採用成本加固定毛利率模式,因此鋰輝石價格上漲對業務產生積極影響。

管理層表示,由於贛鋒鋰業缺乏前端礦石加工能力,在馬洪工廠的產能未被充分利用,但明年下半年將增加碳酸鋰產量10-20ktpa。氫氧化物鳳城項目第一階段可能會在2024年開始生產;預計Cauchari-Olaroz鹽水基碳酸鋰將在2022年中期開始生產,而馬里亞納鹽水項目和索諾拉粘土項目的建設可能會在今年開始。

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