《大行報告》花旗下調世茂集團(00813.HK)目標價至24.3元 評級「買入」
花旗發表的研究報告指,相信世茂集團(00813.HK)目標是可持續增長模式,公司2021年銷售目標為3,300億元人民幣(下同),而下半年可售資源達3,600億元,而利潤跌勢減慢,料毛利率跌勢將減慢,未來兩三年將有2至3個百分點的壓力,而整體行業或跌4至5個百分點,此外可持續收益(物管、商業及酒店)方面今年收入目標有望逾150億元。該行料公司2020至2023年盈利年複合增長將有高單位數,並進一步支持其估值,重申「買入」評級,目標價由36.8港元降至24.3港元。
該行指出公司自疫情的低基數反彈,上半年合約銷售強勁增長38%至1,528億元,而銷售勢頭持續至7月及8月,留意到今年首八月銷售已達2,000億元,完成全年銷售目標的61%,在可售資源層面,公司下半年可售資源3,600億元,意味去化率僅需49%就可達到3,300億元的目標。
上半年公司毛利率28.6%,管理層指出行業平均利潤約為25%,而未來兩三年將面對4至5個百分點的下行壓力,世茂利潤壓力則較細,主要因為其土儲成本較低,加上土地收購策略亦較審慎,新收購地塊毛利率25%,淨利潤率為8%至10%。
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