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華爾街紛紛上調標普500指數預期之際,哪些行業更有看頭?
uSMART盈立智投 08-30 18:17

瑞銀最近也順應了華爾街的趨勢,提高了今年和明年的標普500指數目標。

瑞銀預計標普500指數將於2022年底達到5000點。但該行減少了週期ETF,增加了非週期ETF的配置。

此外,瑞銀還將醫療衛生ETF從中性股升級爲最優股,而工業ETF從最優股下調至中性股。瑞銀在談到醫療衛生ETF時表示:

「多數圍繞藥品定價改革的風險可能已經反映在股價中,預計醫療股盈利增長速度快於其他非週期股。」

在其他最受青睞的行業中,瑞銀均給出了相應觀點。

可選消費品ETF:該行業將會受益於經濟復甦、較低的抵押貸款利率以及電子商務的發展。

能源ETF:相對於油價,該行業看起來很便宜。自由現金流收益率非常有吸引力,資本約束有所改善,隨着需求的復甦,該行業將會受益。

金融行業ETF:隨着經濟增長反彈和利率逐漸走高,收益將會得到恢復。

以下則爲兩個最不受歡迎的行業。

必需消費品ETF:該行業最初受益於「恐慌性」購買,但隨着經濟體重新開放,該行業預計會表現不佳。

公用事業ETF:隨着投資者在市場時尋求更多的週期性機會,該行業可能會滯後。

值得一提的是,花旗更看好工業ETF。花旗策略師Tobias Levkovich在一份報告中寫道:

「除石油和天然氣以外,市場中週期性更強的領域也很有趣。機械和企業集團表現強勁,儘管受資本貨物上漲27%的推動,工業資本支出增長9%,但運輸需求旺盛將抵消部分影響。」

他補充稱,由於零售行業資本支出上漲了160億美元,佔總資本支出的17%,而2014年僅爲9%,因此該子行業是非必需消費支出激增的關鍵。

此外,重組後的通信服務ETF目前佔所有支出的近20%,其中媒體和娛樂佔11%,而2014年通信服務僅佔3%,在過去7年增長了4.5倍以上。

傑克遜霍爾年會週中標普最好和最差的行業

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