《大行報告》大和降信達生物(01801.HK)評級至「跑贏大市」 目標價削至67元
大和發表研究報告,指信達生物(01801.HK)上半年產品收入按年升101%符該行預期;不過,次季核心產品sintilimab收入按季持平於7億元人民幣,生物仿製藥貢獻公司較大收入佔比。報告稱,信達生物今明兩年無可避免面對收入壓力,或導致估值向下重評。評級由「買入」降至「跑贏大市」,目標價由92元降至67元。
報告稱,在競爭加劇下,次季sintilimab收入按季持平,增長展望暗淡。sintilimab正面對史無前例的競爭,為維持競爭力,公司透過病者支援計劃將sintilimab降價40%,至每年4萬元人民幣(下同),料銷量需增加2.5倍以抵銷降價影響。不過,大和料即將到來的2021年國家醫保藥品目錄(NRDL)談判中,sintilimab將會大幅降價,今年下半年起其他新PD-1 mAbs藥品進入市場,sintilimab料增長維艱。因此,報告下調sintilimab內地市場峰值銷售預測30%至45億元。
大和補充,信達生物旗下生物仿製藥業務強勁,但面對藥品集團採購(GPO)風險。該行料國家醫療保障局(NHSA)將於明年舉行生物仿製藥GPO。該行下調信達生物明年生物仿製藥收入預測由31億元降至13.9億元,2023年由43.3億元降至18.6億元,以反映生物仿製藥市場競爭加劇及未來潛在降價。
報告下調信達生物今明兩年收入預測25%及28%,考慮今年NRDL談判的不確定性,建議投資者暫時避開所有產品線具PD-1 mAbs的生物科技股。
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