中銀香港(02388.HK)鄂志寰:融入雙循環助打造香港經濟金融新優勢
中銀香港(02388.HK)首席經濟學家鄂志寰指出,「十四五」規劃綱要提出形成以國內大循環為主、國際國內雙循環相互促進的新格局,加快推進金融市場開放。「十四五」規劃綱要在區域發展、產業佈局、基礎設施建設等方面,提出了一系列支持香港發展的任務舉措,包括:一如既往支持香港提升國際金融、航運、貿易中心地位;強化香港作為全球離岸人民幣業務樞紐、國際資產管理中心及風險管理中心,認為「一個樞紐,三個中心」是對香港融入雙循環的再定位,也是香港金融打造新優勢的重點方向。
他認為香港應進一步融入國家發展大局,打造粵港澳大灣區建設關鍵節點,強調香港在大灣區城市群中最獨特的優勢是營商環境,對以回報為主的國際投資者和跨國企業來說,香港是他們投資內地市場的首選管道,因此,大灣區在支持香港持續保持並優化自身營商環境的同時,也可以借鑒其市場理念和相關的制度設計,提升大灣區整體的營商環境,為各類企業提供良好的營運基礎和廣闊的發展空間。
另一方面,他認為香港應與內地自貿區和自由貿易港深度合作,打造高水準對外開放節點,同時亦可服務中資企業「走出去」,打造「一帶一路」建設輻射節點,以及發揮制度和先發優勢,打造創科合作領先行業節點,並提升香港對內地經濟價值的總體貢獻,保持國際金融中心競爭力。
他指出香港作為小型外向型經濟體和資金自由港,很容易受到外部風險事件的衝擊,香港實體經濟缺乏新的增長點,產業固化,一旦風險不能在短期內及時控制,就易加劇長期積累的矛盾,局部動盪擴散成為全面危機。西方各經濟體在香港積累了巨大利益,各種利益相關者在這裡相互影響,相互制衡。因此應對香港金融風險問題要跳出香港金融自身,進行全域性的思考和長期性的佈局。他表示,未來一個時期大國博弈仍將持續,美國金融霸權和美元霸權仍將影響全球金融活動,美國針對中國香港發動的制裁仍然具有長期性和不對稱性,需要從防控外部衝擊及經濟金融風險的角度統籌應對。從戰略上堅定信心,久久為功打好持久戰;從戰術上攻防結合,保存實力,靈活應對,有效維護香港金融市場穩定,全力提升金融風險的把控和應對能力。
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