《大行报告》大摩降高鑫(06808.HK)目标价至4.7元 料股价已见底
摩根士丹利发表研究报告,指内地食品零售行业挑战持续,同店销售急速收缩料已部分反映。但改变中的监管环境及线上杂货店潜在较收敛的经营手法,可能会令食品零售商股价见底。
报告称,自去年6月起,自疫情复苏、内地消费物价指数(CPI)正常化、不寻常天气及其他不确定性都压抑了食品零售商同店销售。自去年10月起,受网络巨擘及私募支持的社区团购急速扩张,成为更大挑战。即使致力开拓新业务模式以应对竞争,永辉超市(601933.SH)及高鑫零售(06808.HK)均处于调整阶段,寻求可盈利增长的正确模式。因此,市场对其短期表现的期望较低,今年上半年高鑫销售倒退逾10%,而永辉同期则料录亏损。
不过,大摩料未来数季竞争将放缓,一方面,在产品质量而言,夏季对团购服务商带来挑战,据该行调查所得,或部分限制了订单增长。另方面,监管收紧或拖慢团购服务商扩张步伐,在定价及补贴方面需要更具纪律性。更重要是,近期股市向下重评,料减少线上杂货店集资及「烧钱」步伐,重点由全方位扩张转至盈利能力。相反,该行认为永辉及高鑫建基于实体店及供应链的线上杂货店经营,可持续带来有质量的增长。
随著今年基数重订,大摩认为可合理估算未来两年永辉及高鑫财政复苏。据该行调查所得,两企同店销售跌幅收窄或轻微转正,属初步稳定迹象。
报告表示,在该行覆盖内地消费行业中,去年及本年至今食品零售行业股价敬陪末席,较去年中高位累跌逾半。即使估值不高,但该行认为在短期盈利压力未完全反映前,行业难有显著估值重评。该行下调永辉超市投资评级,由「增持」降至「与大市同步」,目标价由12.3元人民币降至4.4元人民币;并维持高鑫「与大市同步」评级,目标价由8.7港元降至4.7港元。
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