《大行報告》大摩降高鑫(06808.HK)目標價至4.7元 料股價已見底
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,指內地食品零售行業挑戰持續,同店銷售急速收縮料已部分反映。但改變中的監管環境及線上雜貨店潛在較收斂的經營手法,可能會令食品零售商股價見底。
報告稱,自去年6月起,自疫情復甦、內地消費物價指數(CPI)正常化、不尋常天氣及其他不確定性都壓抑了食品零售商同店銷售。自去年10月起,受網絡巨擘及私募支持的社區團購急速擴張,成為更大挑戰。即使致力開拓新業務模式以應對競爭,永輝超市(601933.SH)及高鑫零售(06808.HK)均處於調整階段,尋求可盈利增長的正確模式。因此,市場對其短期表現的期望較低,今年上半年高鑫銷售倒退逾10%,而永輝同期則料錄虧損。
不過,大摩料未來數季競爭將放緩,一方面,在產品質量而言,夏季對團購服務商帶來挑戰,據該行調查所得,或部分限制了訂單增長。另方面,監管收緊或拖慢團購服務商擴張步伐,在定價及補貼方面需要更具紀律性。更重要是,近期股市向下重評,料減少線上雜貨店集資及「燒錢」步伐,重點由全方位擴張轉至盈利能力。相反,該行認為永輝及高鑫建基於實體店及供應鏈的線上雜貨店經營,可持續帶來有質量的增長。
隨著今年基數重訂,大摩認為可合理估算未來兩年永輝及高鑫財政復甦。據該行調查所得,兩企同店銷售跌幅收窄或輕微轉正,屬初步穩定跡象。
報告表示,在該行覆蓋內地消費行業中,去年及本年至今食品零售行業股價敬陪末席,較去年中高位累跌逾半。即使估值不高,但該行認為在短期盈利壓力未完全反映前,行業難有顯著估值重評。該行下調永輝超市投資評級,由「增持」降至「與大市同步」,目標價由12.3元人民幣降至4.4元人民幣;並維持高鑫「與大市同步」評級,目標價由8.7港元降至4.7港元。
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