中信證券：軍工對價格管控、階梯降價一直都有要求，行業自Q3拐點向上
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信證券研究
事件：據全軍武器裝備採購信息網，陸軍裝備部提出大力推開原材料競價採購、分系統競爭擇優、大批量階梯降價、多點挖潛、控價讓利，通過精益管理實現價格整體最優。
點評：
1、必須先以在軍方參與過訂單下發的工作經驗彙報相關情況，軍方對價格管控、階梯降價一直都有要求，此次落到紙面上沒有變化；
2、武器裝備採購沒有“集採”。不同於醫藥“集採”動輒價格下降70%到80%，軍品價格通常是階梯降價，比如生產一千台某裝備降價5%，生產三千台再降5%，從未也不會大幅降價。武器裝備對安全性穩定性要求明顯超過消費電子，價格管控不是單純為了降價，而是在不影響產品質量的情況下減少跑冒滴漏！全產業鏈大規模降價顯然會嚴重影響軍品質量和交付。
3、不同軍兵種發展並不是“一碗水端平”。目前的國防戰略早就一改過去的“大陸軍主義”，對比美軍發展，顯然空軍火箭軍以及新信息化裝備是未來發展重心。“2020年確保基本實現機械化”的目標已經實現，陸軍裝備已經從“補缺口”調整到供應鏈管控。但是顯然，未來重點發展的空軍火箭軍及信息化裝備，因為缺口太大，完全沒到重點管控價格的階段。
4、在過去一直在進行價格管控的情況下，軍工行業已經在過去連續幾個季度持續兑現業績，價格調控並未影響業績高增長。我們對“軍工行業自Q3拐點向上”的觀點不變，軍工行業的發展確定性自Q3得到驗證的邏輯不變，“與半導體、新能源同屬於景氣賽道，符合長期政策導向”的長期趨勢不變。若消息面完成板塊調整，反而會給核心個股提供較好的配置窗口。
5、細分領域分析：
主機廠：主機廠憑藉唯一性，具備議價能力，長期看受價格調控影響最小。推薦中航沈飛、航發動力；
軍工電子：元器件一直受階梯降價管控，而目前芯片國產化率仍較低，影響有限。推薦中航光電、航天電器、鴻遠電子、火炬電子、高德紅外、睿創微納；
軍工新材料：碳纖維鈦材年初已降價，股價已充分反應；高温合金因缺口極大，不但未降價，還曾多次漲價。推薦中航高科、西部超導、撫順特鋼、中簡科技；
航空零部件：市場對航空鍛造件領域仍存在認知偏差，且航空裝備缺口較大，前期也已進行價格調整。推薦中航重機、三角防務、北摩高科、航宇科技、愛樂達。
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