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《大行報告》大摩首予力勁科技(00558.HK)「與大市同步」評級 目標價22元
阿思達克 08-17 12:03
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,首予力勁科技(00558.HK)「與大市同步」評級,目標價22元。該行料力勁受惠於大型壓鑄機需求上升,新能源車生產商致力降低車身重量。不過,由於市場新加入者湧現,料競爭將加劇,正面因素已反映,現時估值達明年預測市盈率50倍,反映風險回報平衡。 報告稱,力勁是全球最大大型壓鑄機生產商,以收入計本地市佔逾50%。隨著Tesla(TSLA.US)去年起採購力勁屬下Idra的Giga Press以生產Model Y底盤,該行料新能源車將增加採用大型一體化外殼,長遠而言料逐步取代焊接程序。一體化外殼的優點包括車身較輕,以及較高材料使用率。倘新能源車全面採用一體化外殼,該行基本假設2020至2030年間需求年均複合增長35%,市場規模將由今年的7億元人民幣擴大至2030年的60億元人民幣。 大摩表示,力勁累計獲得近30台大型壓鑄機訂單。展望未來,受惠更佳產品組合,料其盈利能力將改善。該行料該板塊2021至2024財年收入年均複合增長80%,料至2024財年貢獻收入約40%,遠高於2021財年的10%佔比。大型壓鑄機的淨利潤率介乎10%至15%,高於中小型壓鑄機。 不過,報告稱,力勁所面對市場競爭料加劇。該行亦留意到行業當進入下行周期時,力勁注塑機(PIMM)收入增長跑輸海天國際(01882.HK)。海天及伊之密(300415.SZ)均表示自6月起新訂單增長顯著放緩,料弱勢持續至第三季。該行料力勁未來一至兩年或受累於市佔流失。 大摩料力勁2022至2024財年(各截至3月底止)收入分別47.59億、54.52億及62.28億元;每股盈利料分別38仙、46仙及55仙。
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