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《大行報告》花旗下調裕元(00551.HK)目標價至23元 評級「買入」
花旗發表的研究報告指,與裕元集團(00551.HK)舉行業績後電話會議,將公司2021-23年盈利預測下調12%、7%及7%,以反映第三季面對的困境及疫情後產能復甦慢過預期。近期疫情轉差影響到越南及印尼的生產,估計第三季製造方面產能將減20-30%。在內地銷售方面,料第三季寶勝返校季的銷售將弱過預期。基於7月份製造及寶勝銷售均遜預期,將公司目標價由25元降至23元,評級「買入」,認為申洲國際(02313.HK)仍然是國內服裝及鞋類製造業首選。 該行引述管理層指出,疫情於第三季為東盟帶來影響,公司目標今年可恢復2019年產能的85-90%,雖然上半年產能已達2019年的95%水平,不過估計相關比例於下半年會降至低於85%,主要因為越南廠房生產受阻,而印尼的廠房則受溫和影響,兩家廠房分別佔今年上半年整體產出的45%及41%,因此公司7月份製造的銷售較2019年同期跌最多35%。公司指,越南廠房已開展疫苗接種計劃,管理層料到9月底接種率可達七成左右,與印尼60-65%的高接種率可比,該行相信影響將是短暫,而管理層估計在第四季旺季產能可再度提升。 管理層認為隨著經濟重啟,需求自去年的困境逆轉,不過服裝及鞋類行業今年面對供應鏈挑戰,而非需求挑戰,主要由於受最近疫情影響廠房停工、生產受阻,該行估計疫情將拖累第三季的預期,而管理層則料2021年毛利率將較2019年低1-2個百分點,差過該行預期。(el/u) ~
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