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資源股逆勢爆發！私募大佬二季度提前加倉
來源 | 上海證券報
8月12日早盤，三大股指震盪走弱，創業板指跌幅超1%，軍工、光伏、鋰電板塊跌幅居前。資源股逆勢爆發。Wind數據顯示，鋼鐵、煤炭、有色金屬行業指數漲幅均處於主題行業指數漲幅前列。
機構稱，近期供給縮減預期有所降溫，但以煤炭、鋼鐵爲代表的主要大宗商品價格在供需缺口的存在下仍舊有所支撐，價格走勢有望重回供需邏輯，各類大宗商品可能在淡旺季錯位下走出分化行情。
鋼鐵板塊個股集體走強。截至發稿，首鋼股份漲停，太鋼不鏽、馬鋼股份、鞍鋼股份等紛紛跟漲。板塊指數上漲2.56%，位列行業漲幅榜第一位。
市場人士表示，鋼鐵板塊的走強主要由基本面和政策面支撐所致。隨着各地鋼鐵限產政策落地，鐵礦石的原料需求相對被打壓，這使得原料價格的重心下調，從而導致利潤向鋼鐵企業方向端轉移，利潤預期有所提高。
此外，鐵礦石期貨價格持續下探。8月10日，鐵礦石主力合約盤中最低觸及823元/噸，創下近9個月來新低，8月11日，鐵礦石主力合約收報871.5元/噸，相較5月12日高點期間累計跌幅仍在30%以上。
光大證券認爲，下半年粗鋼減產執行概率逐步提升，且近期原料價格大幅回落，主要上市鋼鐵企業盈利能力有望進一步改善。
早盤A股有色板塊大幅拉昇，尤其是鋁業股領漲，南山鋁業、神火股份漲停，雲鋁股份、露天煤業、中國鋁業等紛紛漲幅居前。此外，紫金礦業、西藏礦業也紛紛跟漲。
貴金屬方面，黃金板塊迎來反彈，湖南黃金漲停，山東黃金、銀泰黃金紛紛跟漲。
從二季度機構持倉來看，上遊資源股也是私募大佬關注的焦點。
天山鋁業最新披露的中報顯示，上半年淨利潤19.82億元，同比增長203.48%，千億私募高毅資產首席投資官鄧曉峯曾大幅增持了該股，最新持股數量爲2000萬股。此外鄧曉峯還持有多隻資源股，包括紫金礦業增持2123萬股，西部礦業506萬股。
近日，政治局會議再提“做好大宗商品保供穩價工作”，同時就碳中和提出“堅持全國一盤棋，糾正運動式‘減碳’，堅決遏制‘兩高’項目盲目發展”。
國金證券認爲，政治局會議糾正運動式“減碳”，做好大宗商品保供穩價工作，資源品漲價行情或已處在頂部區域。
但中信證券認爲，政治局會議前後商品期貨市場大幅波動更多是由於政策消息因素，大幅波動後價格企穩表明短期內供需錯配仍然存在，後續供需邏輯料將重回主導，且給出三條理由：
一、動力煤需求在8月的用電高峯後或趨緩，疊加部分煤礦復產或在8月形成實際產量，預計動力煤價格短期高位運行後或有所回落，年底11、12月爲第二波用電高峯，屆時價格上行動能增強。
二、焦煤和焦炭總庫存處於今年以來低位，短期補庫意願強烈爲雙焦價格形成支撐，後續鋼廠和焦企實際限產的執行情況是主要關注點，若鋼鐵產量大幅收縮則雙焦供給端趨緊局面或被扭轉。
三、鋼鐵限產目標清晰，限產穩步推進下預計減碳糾偏的影響有限，需求端雖然地產投資走弱但基建投資回暖，預計整體不會出現大幅縮減。綜合供需雙端來看，下半年鋼價或高位波動運行。
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