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頭號MEME股AMC院線失寵了嗎?
uSMART盈立智投 08-11 21:48

週一美股盤後,AMC院線(AMC.US)公佈的2021年第二季度財報顯示,該公司營收及淨虧損好於預期。週二美股盤初,該股一度漲超8%,但隨後一路走低,收盤跌6.07%,報31.75美元。

AMC失寵?

AMC院線首席執行官亞當•阿倫(Adam Aron)在財報電話會議上向該公司忠實的散戶投資者展示了其想法,因爲他們更關心瘋狂的創新,而非傳統的估值。阿倫表示,AMC會考慮與遊戲驛站(GME.US)合作,並計劃年底前支持該公司美國所有影院使用比特幣在線支付電影票並獲得優惠。不過,阿倫確實拒絕了讓猩猩成爲AMC院線官方吉祥物的想法(“猩猩軍團”是散戶投資者對自己的代稱),並認爲迴歸汽車影院是一個糟糕的經濟想法。

從基本的數據來看,AMC院線的業績似乎還不錯:Q2營收4.45億美元,市場預期爲3.82億美元,去年同期爲1900萬美元;淨虧損爲3.44億美元,每股淨虧損爲0.71美元,市場預期爲0.94美元。兩項指標均好於市場預期,且截至季末共持有18.11億美元現金。

這也使得該股股價在週二美股盤初得以飆升。然而,對該公司商業模式的擔憂依然存在。

ASB Capital表示,該公司上座率的增長還不足夠——二季度有2200萬觀衆重返影院,較第一季的700萬有所增加,但仍與正常情況相去甚遠。The Asian Investor則表示,該公司的虧損規模和二季度嚴重的負現金流表明,其仍面臨着許多至今尚未解決的業務挑戰,尤其是高額現金消耗。

阿倫也表示,該行業不會在2021年就恢復正常,甚至可能2022年也無法恢復正常,而該公司只有“可能”足夠的現金來撐過沒有完全恢復的這兩年。

不出所料,大空頭吉姆•查諾斯(Jim Chanos)抨擊散戶對該公司的交易存在“誤導原因”,而沒有看到公司業務模式或高估值的風險。他說:“如果你一直在做蠢事,並一直說‘我不在乎’,當你最終賠錢的時候,你只能怪你自己。”查諾斯認爲,由於疫情和流媒體對傳統電影行業的衝擊,AMC院線已不可能再實現盈利。他同時還警告稱,隨着投機性股票市場出現更多危險信號,後期“參與遊戲”的散戶投資者可能最終爲此“買單”。

在年初的多空大戰中,AMC院線也是美國散戶抱團做多的對象之一。截至發稿,AMC院線的股價今年迄今仍上漲了約1400%,意味着散戶們對該股的狂熱並沒有完全消失,但隨着該股在7月下跌了近35%,在上一週下跌了近12%,市場也開始重新評估AMC院線作爲頭號MEME股的地位。

散戶投資興趣上升

隨着AMC院線的散戶支持者們準備在30美元的水平上再次支持該股,幾乎沒有跡象表明會有一隻新的MEME股如AMC院線一般迎來前所未有的上漲。

不過,根據數據提供商Quiver Quantitative的數據,電池技術公司Microvast(MVST.US)最近在WSB論壇的提及名單中名列前茅,該股股價近期一直處於劇烈震盪之中。摩根士丹利指出,散戶投資者對其投資興趣正在升溫,傾向於增加買入。

摩根士丹利的量化股票策略團隊寫道:“散戶投資者對該股的參與佔市場總量的9.4%,較過去5年爲第76個百分位。”“多空失衡較爲嚴重。”

房地產(XLRE.US)和醫療保健(XLV.US)在散戶中多空失衡最嚴重,因此下一個最受歡迎的MEME股可能來自這些行業。材料(XLB.US)和消費品(XLP.US)也存在多空失衡,而能源和工業板塊反之。

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