貸款利率走勢怎麼看？
本文來自：志明看金融，作者： 廖志明
8月9日，央行發佈了《21Q2貨幣政策執行報告》
新發放貸款利率小幅下行，預計後續貸款利率仍將承壓
新發放貸款利率小幅下行。21年6月新發放貸款加權平均利率4.93%，較3月下降17BP，降幅明顯；主要是票據融資利率明顯下降及一般貸款利率走低。6月份一般貸款加權平均利率5.20%，較3月份下降10BP。經濟復甦，市場此前預期今年貸款利率小幅改善，這打破了貸款利率上升的預期。貨幣政策報告提出，“繼續釋放貸款市場報價利率改革潛力，完善央行政策利率體系，持續優化存款利率監管，推動實際貸款利率進一步降低。”這或許意味着，政策將繼續引導貸款利率下行。
下半年信貸需求或一般。國內信貸需求主要是三部分：1）融資平臺等構成的廣義政府需求；2）房地產信貸需求（包括個人住房按揭及房地產開發貸）；3）製造業及一般企業、個人消費貸款及經營貸款等市場化融資需求。我們預計，在房地產信貸集中度政策及收緊融資平臺信貸政策等影響下，下半年信貸需求一般。這將影響貸款利率走勢，預計貸款利率穩中略降。
美聯儲收緊及通脹壓力不容忽視，國內貨幣政策難以大幅寬鬆
通脹壓力要重視。21Q2貨幣政策執行報告對通脹着墨頗多，其中，專欄1《正確認識貨幣與通脹關係》明確指出，“貨幣與通脹的關係沒有變化，貨幣大量超發必然導致通脹，穩住通脹的關鍵還是要管住貨幣。”儘管CPI因豬肉價格下跌相對較低，但21年7月PPI同比上漲9.0%，國內通脹壓力依然凸顯。
國內貨幣政策難以大幅寬鬆，或穩中略偏鬆。除了通脹壓力，境外不少國家已經開啓加息，美聯儲退出QE及加息亦是方向。儘管貨幣政策以我爲主，作爲大國，美聯儲貨幣政策影響在減弱，但這也勢必會約束國內貨幣政策寬鬆空間。我們認爲，通脹壓力及境外貨幣政策收緊之下，國內貨幣政策難以大幅寬鬆。考慮到，經濟下行壓力加大，後續貨幣政策或穩中偏鬆。
投資建議：銀行板塊基本企穩，回調帶來較低估值配置優質銀行之機會
近兩個月因經濟下行預期升溫，及新能源半導體行情火爆導致機構資金“虹吸效應”，銀行板塊大幅回調，平安、寧波、招行等板塊機構重倉股跌幅較大。我們認爲，即便後續經濟明顯下行，零售銀行的基本面受影響較小。近兩天，銀行板塊明顯反彈，我們認爲，銀行板塊已經基本企穩，回調帶來較低估值配置優質銀行之良機。
當前位置，我們強烈推薦估值已明顯回落的銀行股一線龍頭-平安、寧波銀行等，關注江蘇、南京、杭州等。一線龍頭爲板塊定價標杆，估值明顯回落後，我們預計市場關注度將重回一線龍頭。
風險提示：金融讓利，息差收窄；經濟下行，資產質量顯著惡化等。
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