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《大行報告》中金料內房股或迎來一波反彈行情 H股看好中海外、旭輝、潤地、龍湖及寶龍
中金髮表研究報告,認爲內房行業的政策收緊及利潤率走弱等利淡因素已充分釋放,第二批集中供地項目利潤率已出現企穩回升跡象,認爲雖然短期仍有部分城市可能調控加碼,或有房企中期業績增展較弱,以及房企出現信貸事件等風險,但考慮到板塊估值及倉位均已達歷史新低,認爲對內房板塊不宜繼續太悲觀,內房股或迎來一波反彈行情。應關注財務、土儲、週轉都表現較好的龍頭企業,看好中海外(00688.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)、潤地(01109.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)及寶龍(01238.HK),均予「跑贏行業」評級。 中金指出,板塊前期利淡因而充分釋放,行業見底信號漸現,4月至今該行覆蓋的重點房企股價普遍回調約20%至30%,估值和倉位創歷史新低,對利空因素的反映已較爲充分,中海、龍湖、融創(01918.HK)、旭輝等多家房企近期亦有回購,或股東高管增持,認爲板塊可能已由前期持續下跌趨勢進入底部波動階段,建議投資者在波動中把握入市機會。 該行又指,近日樓市及土地市場雙雙降溫,政策管控壓力有望逐漸舒緩,數據反映市場已不再過熱,第二輪集中土拍的城市溢價率已出現明顯下降,預期後市調控壓力將有所舒緩,維持個股盈利預測不變。
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