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《大行報告》高盛一舉降農行(01288.HK)評級至「沽售」 下調內銀目標價
高盛發表研究報告,指按其對約3,000隻A股非財務數據及市場預測的不良貸款分析模型顯示,由於市場預測下調,意味今年不良貸款率或由該行早前預測的4.7%上升至6.8%。以盈利對貸款利息覆蓋(EIC)計償債能力,顯示更多公司跌入EIC最低的25%範圍,範圍內企業債務亦增加。這確認該行認為不良貸款周期將呈現的看法。 該行稱,對內銀資本基礎及盈利韌性進行核查,以應對不良貸款周期帶來潛在信貸成本上升;亦計及近期降準作為逆周期措施以支持系統融資需要,帶來的信貸增長加快。該行核查顯示內銀如招行(03968.HK)、郵儲行(01658.HK)定位較佳,受惠更強風險緩衝,在壯大盈利及支持貸款增長上更具彈性。 高盛表示,投資者考慮內銀資產質素作為股價推動力。不良貸款周期重現已壓抑股價,該行留意到內銀派息後過去兩個月,大型國有銀行股價跌幅較招行、平安銀行(000001.SZ)、郵儲行及興業銀行(601166.SH)為大。該行歸咎於首季後中小企信貸增長再度加快,大型內銀按年升達49%,混合制及地區銀行按年升分別35%及24%。該行核查指大型國有銀行信貸增長較快,或在股本回報率面對更大挑戰,源於中小企不良貸款率潛在較高。 高盛特別指出農行(01288.HK)傳統上資產質素較弱或面對更大逆風,投資評級由「買入」一舉降至「沽售」,目標價將40%由4.66元降至2.81元,並下調其他內銀目標價介乎13%至34%。其餘內銀投資評級及目標價見另表。
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