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高盛:降農行(1288.HK)目標價至2.81港元 評級沽售

高盛發表研究報吿指,對內銀資本基礎及盈利韌性進行核查,以應對不良貸款週期帶來潛在信貸成本上升;亦計及近期降準作為逆週期措施以支持系統融資需要,帶來的信貸增長加快。該行核查顯示內銀如招行(3968.HK)、郵儲行(1658.HK)定位較佳,受惠更強風險緩衝,在壯大盈利及支持貸款增長上更具彈性。

高盛表示,投資者考慮內銀資產質素作為股價推動力。不良貸款週期重現已壓抑股價,該行留意到內銀派息後過去兩個月,大型國有銀行股價跌幅較招行、平安銀行(000001.SZ)、郵儲行及興業銀行(601166.SH)為大。該行歸咎於首季後中小企信貸增長再度加快,大型內銀按年升達49%,混合制及地區銀行按年升分別35%及24%。該行核查指大型國有銀行信貸增長較快,或在股本回報率面對更大挑戰,源於中小企不良貸款率潛在較高。

高盛特別指出農行(1288.HK)傳統上資產質素較弱或面對更大逆風,投資評級由買入一舉降至沽售,目標價降由4.66港元降至2.81港元,並下調其他內銀目標價介乎13%至34%。

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