IC Insights :今年芯片出貨量將暴增21%
在 2019 年 IC 單位出貨量下降 6% 和 2020 年增長 8% 之後,IC Insights 預測,今年 IC 單位出貨量將大幅增長 21%。2021 年的出貨量預計將達到 3912 億,是 30 多年前 1990 年出貨量 341 億的 11 倍多。
2020-2025 年 IC 出貨量的複合年增長率預計爲 11%,比 2015-2020 年的單位複合年增長率高 5 個百分點。
在忽略具有異常高或低端點的 5 年 CAGR 時間段時,IC Insights 認爲 IC 單位出貨量的長期前景爲 7%-8% 的複合年增長率,略低於其 9% 的 30 年增長率。
這可以說明 IC 出貨量下降是多麼的罕見,2019 年是 IC 行業歷史上第五次 IC 出貨量下降(前四年是 1985 年、2001 年、2009 年和 2012 年),而且從來沒有出現過兩次IC 出貨量連續多年下降。
圖 1 顯示了與 2005 年到 2021 年預測的趨勢線相比的季度 IC 單位出貨量。2008 年,隨着下半年全球經濟衰退的全面爆發,對 IC 的潛在需求大幅下降。
2008 年年中至 2015 年 ,IC 單位銷量的複合年增長率趨勢線從歷史複合年增長率 9% 降至 6%。造成這種情況的主要原因之一是,在這八年期間,全球 GDP 平均僅增長了 2.1%。此外,即使 2019 年 IC 單位出貨量下降 6%,預計 2016-2021 季度 IC 單位出貨量趨勢線預計將增加三個百分點至 9%。
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