瑞銀上調今年本港GDP增長至7% 料秋季恢復中港通關
瑞銀上調本港今年GDP增長預測,自5.3%上調至7%。瑞銀投資銀行全球研究部北亞地區經濟師鄧維慎表示,認爲明日(30日)公佈的次季GDP將維持於按年7.5%的勁增長,上半年增速將接近8%。政府目前預計GDP增速介乎3.3%至5.5%,他認爲,截至目前的大幅增長以及未來穩健的前景,或爲政府上調預測提供空間。
鄧維慎表示,本港失業率已連續四個月下滑,自2月高位7.2%降至6月的5.5%。就業增長提速,加上就業環境改善,有望支撐家庭收入及消費,降低增長下滑的風險。另外,貿易強勁增長爲近期GDP增長的主要引擎,國內增長驅動力有望成爲主導因素。就業環境改善及疫情形勢得到控制,將推動國內個人消費進一步好轉,爲經濟增速上行奠定基礎。
該行預計,公共投資增速將維持高位。該行的預期假設與中國內地的隔離措施將從秋季起放寬,相信可加強企業信心,提振私人部門情緒。
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