《大行报告》大和降新东方在线(01797.HK)评级至「跑输大市」 目标价削至3.3元
大和发表研报指,当局出台「双减」政策,打击内地K12课後学科培训市场,虽然预期新东方在线(01797.HK)可取得新规下的线上教育经营牌照,但业务料仍大受影响,高增长趋势不再。
该行指,政策及潜在分拆K12业务独立经营,料将令新东方在线2021财年K12收入损失60%至70%,预期2022财年K12收入增幅将降至40%,2023年收入料跌10%,至2024年再恢复约10%增长,远低於早前预期的2021至2023财年年均复合增长60%。
惟该行指出,线上课程需求不断增加,料有利於公司线上教育业务发展,由於目前规模较小,难以判断在当局限制教育机构广告及禁止使用考试题库应用程序下,公司能否从中受惠。
大和提到,K12原为公司长远重要发展方向,但未来将不得不缩减原有的扩张计划,考虑到当局或对行业进一步收紧规管,新东方在线或需将重心更改至高等教育、STEM或其他资格教育课程,将评级由「买入」降至「跑输大市」,目标价由31元大削至3.3元。
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