大摩：普遍上調香港地產股目標價 看好信置(0083.HK)等三股
格隆匯 07-27 14:00
摩根士丹利發表研究報吿，指香港地產股今年至今跑贏恆指，估值均較每股資產淨值折讓49%，股息收益率為4%以上，維持行業吸引的看法。
該行指，香港樓價上半年升6%，而2019年及20年樓市則維持持平，該行上調香港今年樓價預測增幅至9%，而明年增長為5%，主要受惠租金復甦、持續低息率，及供需平衡。零售租金料會於下半年升4%，而明年增長有望達10%，當中5,000元消費券計劃料可提升本地下半年整體零售銷售8%，加上本地疫情改善，有助內地客下半年來港，料至年底可以回覆至疫情前水平僅20%。
該行預期，辦公室租金在現水平維持持平至2022年底，空置率為9.5%，為17年的高位。2022至23年具規模的辦公室供應增加，以及在家工作的趨勢均窒礙租金復甦。
該行料，本地地產股股息率為4%以上，預期在下個月的業績期，大部份公司可維持穩定的派息，除了九龍倉置業(1997.HK)、冠君產業信託(2778.HK)、置富產業信託(0778.HK)，因每股盈利下降，而令每股分派減少。該行預期下半年具規模的辦公室供應增加，香港租務市場EBIT料改善至跌5%(上年同期為-13%)。首五個月內地奢侈品零售銷售按年增47%，相信有助恆隆地產(0101.HK)、太古地產(1972.HK)、和新鴻基地產(0016.HK)。該行看好信和置業(0083.HK)、嘉裏建設(0683.HK)、希慎興業(0014.HK)。
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