《大行報告》匯豐研究升新奧能源(02688.HK)評級至「買入」 降華潤燃氣(01193.HK)至「持有」
匯豐研究發表報告,指內地加快採用天然氣作爲化石燃料替代能源,與國家2030年「碳達峯」目標相配合,料消耗量年均複合增長5%。不過,由於2060年「碳中和」目標,2030年後,天然氣長遠增長或放緩、消失甚至逆轉。即使絕對需求堅韌,部分工業生產所需電力難以透過可再生能源支撐。氫能發展或爲天然氣產業帶來額外不確定性,拉闊天然氣需求最樂觀與最悲觀展望之間的差距。
報告表示,相關公用股料可以應對轉型。下遊天然氣公用企業的核心優勢在於獨市銷氣,與數以百萬計終端用戶有直接接觸點。客戶基礎爲更高回報的增值服務(如廚房用具、家居保險)及綜合能源解決方案提供機遇。該行料所覆蓋天然氣股至2025年非天然氣業務毛利貢獻佔比料達10%至34%,至2030年料進一步擴至介乎23%至38%。相較供電、供水及電訊股,由於交叉銷售具競爭優勢,該行料天然氣公用股可更受惠於盈利來源多元化。
考慮本年首五個月營運數據,增長展望、環境、社會及公司治理(ESG)、近期天然氣提價及估值,指中國燃氣(00384.HK)屬該行首選;其次爲新奧能源(02688.HK),評級由「持有」升至「買入」;隨後爲港華燃氣(01083.HK)。該行下調華潤燃氣(01193.HK)評級由「買入」降至「持有」,主因潤燃在非天然氣業務起步較遲,建議投資者等待觀望進展。該行並預期在接駁費用明顯復甦下,港華燃氣最有機會中績勝預期。詳細評級及目標價見另表。
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